April 2018

For every men's NCAA basketball game this season, ESPN has a webpage for the game with a tracker for "probability the home team wins" over the course of the game. It starts at some initial prediction and updates as the game progresses.

The plots I have here are the result of attempting to scrape all games for the 2017-2018 season (about 5500 games are represented).

They illustrate the calibration of both the initial predictions and the mid-game predictions; the average quadratic scores of these predictions, binned into 10-percentile buckets; and how the predictions' scores change over the course of the games.